Welcome to Kitco News’ 2022 outlook series. The new year will be filled with uncertainty as the Federal Reserve looks to pivot and tighten its monetary policies. At the same time, the inflation threat continues to grow, which means real rates will remain in low to negative territory. Stay tuned to Kitco News to learn from the experts on how to navigate turbulent financial markets in 2022.
(Kitco News) – Gold and silver prices are lower in early U.S. trading Monday, as the safe-haven have so far today been unable to benefit from a risk-off trader and investor mentality in the market place to start a holiday-shortened trading week. February gold was last down $6.50 at $1,798.40 and March Comex silver was last down $0.273 at $22.265 an ounce.
Global stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. It”s indeed a risk-off trading day in the marketplace to begin a Christmas-holiday-shortened trading week Monday. The coronavirus pandemic just won”t go away and is raging in several European countries, which is causing fresh business and travel restrictions. The Omicron strain is also surging in parts of the U.S. right as the holiday season approaches.
Also a negative for the U.S. markets is the blockage of the Biden administration”s $1.7 trillion Build Back Better spending program by Sen. Joe Manchin. Many analysts are saying Biden”s big plan is dead in the water now—dealing a huge blow to Biden. Some economists are already dialing back U.S. economic growth projections for 2022.
Pressuring Asian shares overnight is news that another China property firm is in trouble. Reports said the Kaisa firm has announced it defaulted on several U.S. dollar-denominated bonds. The developer is in discussions with creditors regarding a restructuring plan. The bigger troubled China property developer, Evergrande, has had two land parcels in Chengdu reclaimed by local government without compensation, said reports. The Asian markets got little help from China”s central bank cutting its one-year loan prime rate, in a move to shore up the world”s second-largest economy.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly lower on the pandemic worries, and trading around $68.20 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.387%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes leading economic indicators.
Technically, February gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls” next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,825.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,775.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,804.60 and then at last week”s high of $1,815.70. First support is seen at $1,785.00 and then at $1,775.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0
The March silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a four-week-old price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated to suggest a market bottom is in place. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at $23.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $21.00. First resistance is seen at last week”s high of $22.69 and then at $23.00. Next support is seen at $22.00 and then at the December low of $21.41. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.0.
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