Which countries import Russian oil and what it will take to stop the flow – The Washington Post

Russia is the world’s largest oil exporter. Many lawmakers from both parties in the United States are arguing that it is possible to impose a ban on Russian oil without hurting the U.S. economy. But will the barrels add up in the global market? Oil analysts say the sheer magnitude of Russia’s oil exports makes them difficult if not impossible to offset, setting up high prices and an economic slowdown.

Here is a look at the flow of Russian oil, from western Siberia or the distant Yamal Peninsula to the cities of Beijing, Berlin and beyond.


7.2 million barrels per day

Russia is the third-largest oil producer in the world. Its output comes to 11.3 million barrels a day, mostly from eastern Siberia, the Yamal region and Tatarstan.

 

Russia ranks as the world’s largest oil exporter. It consumes about 3.45 million barrels a day while exporting more than 7 million barrels of crude oil and other petroleum products a day, shipped primarily through pipelines but also by tankers.

Countries backing

sanctions

against Russia

4.8 million

barrels per day

In the year ending in October, Russia supplied about a quarter of all oil imported by the European Union, three times as much as the next-largest importer.

Dependence on Russian oil varies widely among E.U. countries. Germany, the bloc’s economic powerhouse, and Poland

imported the largest quantities

for domestic use.

Among E.U. countries, Slovakia, Finland and Lithuania rely most on Russian oil imports.

In the United States, the Biden administration backed a ban on all imports of Russian oil and gas as lawmakers pushed ahead with a bipartisan bill on Capitol Hill. Overall, Russian oil last year accounted for about 3 percent of total U.S. consumption. Most analysts say U.S. refiners can easily buy that much elsewhere. A small refiner in Hawaii, Par Pacific, for example, said it has stopped buying from Russia and would look to North and South America for supplies.

The Netherlands is a major refining and trading center for Europe, with large amounts of oil bought and sold in Rotterdam.

Russia sold 1.6 million barrels of crude oil a day to China last year, making it the largest single buyer of Russian crude. Russia was China’s second-largest crude oil supplier in 2021, accounting for about 15 percent of China’s total imports and behind only Saudi Arabia.

Roughly 745,000 barrels of crude oil was delivered per day to Central and Eastern European nations, including Hungary, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Belarus and Bulgaria. Belarus got 95 percent of its oil imports from Russia. Hungary got 74 percent and Lithuania 61 percent.

7.2 million barrels per day

Russia is the third-largest oil producer in the world. Its output comes to 11.3 million barrels a day, mostly from eastern Siberia, the Yamal region and Tatarstan.

 

Russia ranks as the world’s largest oil exporter. It consumes about 3.45 million barrels a day while exporting more than

7 million barrels of crude oil and other petroleum products a day, shipped primarily through pipelines but also by tankers.

Countries backing

sanctions

against Russia

4.8 million

barrels per day

In the year ending in October, Russia supplied about a quarter of all oil imported by the European Union, three times as much as the next-largest importer.

Dependence on Russian oil varies widely among E.U. countries. Germany, the bloc’s economic powerhouse, and Poland imported the largest quantities for domestic use.

Among E.U. countries, Slovakia, Finland and Lithuania rely most on Russian oil imports.

In the United States, the Biden administration backed a ban on all imports

of Russian oil and gas as lawmakers pushed ahead with a bipartisan bill on Capitol Hill. Overall, Russian oil last year accounted for about 3 percent of total U.S. consumption. Most analysts say U.S. refiners can easily buy that much elsewhere. A small refiner in Hawaii, Par Pacific, for example, said it has stopped buying from Russia and would look

to North and South America for supplies.

The Netherlands is a major refining and trading center for Europe, with large amounts of oil bought and sold in Rotterdam.

Russia sold 1.6 million barrels of crude oil a day to China last year, making it the largest single buyer of Russian crude. Russia was China’s second-largest crude oil supplier in 2021, accounting for about 15 percent of China’s total imports and behind only

Saudi Arabia.

Roughly 745,000 barrels of crude oil was delivered per day to Central and Eastern European nations, including Hungary, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Belarus and Bulgaria. Belarus got 95 percent

of its oil imports from Russia. Hungary got

74 percent and Lithuania 61 percent.

7.2 million barrels per day

Russia is the third-largest oil producer in the world. Its output comes to 11.3 million barrels a day, mostly from eastern Siberia, the Yamal region and Tatarstan.

 

Russia ranks as the world’s largest oil exporter. It consumes about 3.45 million barrels a day while exporting more than

7 million barrels of crude oil and other petroleum products a day, shipped primarily through pipelines but also by

tankers.

Countries backing

sanctions against Russia

Countries

not backing

sanctions

against Russia

4.8 million barrels per day

In the year ending in October, Russia supplied about a quarter of all oil imported by the European Union, three times as much as the next-largest importer.

Dependence on Russian oil varies widely among E.U. countries. Germany, the bloc’s economic powerhouse, and Poland imported the largest quantities for domestic use.

Among E.U. countries, Slovakia, Finland and Lithuania rely most on Russian oil imports.

In the United States, the Biden administration backed a ban on all imports of Russian oil and gas as lawmakers pushed ahead with a bipartisan bill on Capitol Hill. Overall, Russian oil last year accounted for about 3 percent of total U.S. consumption. Most analysts say U.S. refiners can easily buy that much elsewhere. A small refiner in Hawaii, Par Pacific, for example, said it has stopped buying from Russia and would look to North and South America for supplies.

The Netherlands is a major refining and trading center for Europe, with large amounts of oil bought and sold in Rotterdam.

Russia sold 1.6 million barrels of crude oil a day to China last year, making it the largest single buyer of Russian crude. Russia was China’s second-largest crude oil supplier in 2021, accounting for about 15 percent of China’s total imports and behind only Saudi Arabia.

Roughly 745,000 barrels of crude oil was delivered per day to Central and Eastern European nations, including Hungary, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Belarus and Bulgaria. Belarus got 95 percent of its oil imports from Russia. Hungary got 74 percent and Lithuania 61 percent.

7.2 million barrels per day

Russia is the third-largest oil producer in the

world. Its output comes to 11.3 million barrels

a day, mostly from eastern Siberia, the Yamal region and Tatarstan.

 

Russia ranks as the world’s largest oil exporter. It consumes about 3.45 million barrels a day

while exporting more than 7 million barrels of crude oil and other petroleum products a day,

shipped primarily through pipelines but also by

tankers.

Countries backing

sanctions against Russia

Countries not

backing

sanctions

against Russia

4.8 million barrels per day

In the year ending in October, Russia supplied about a quarter of

all oil imported by the European Union, three times as much as the

next-largest importer.

Dependence on Russian oil varies widely among E.U. countries.

Germany, the bloc’s economic powerhouse, and Poland imported the largest quantities for domestic use.

Among E.U. countries, Slovakia, Finland and Lithuania rely most on Russian oil imports.

In the United States, the Biden administration backed a ban on all imports of Russian oil and gas as lawmakers pushed ahead with a bipartisan bill on Capitol Hill. Overall, Russian oil last year accounted for about 3 percent of total U.S. consumption. Most analysts say U.S. refiners can easily buy that much elsewhere. A small refiner in Hawaii, Par Pacific, for example, said it has stopped buying from Russia and would look to North and South America for supplies.

The Netherlands is a major refining and trading center for Europe,

with large amounts of oil bought and sold in Rotterdam.

Russia sold 1.6 million barrels of crude oil a day to China last year, making it the largest single buyer of Russian crude. Russia was China’s second-largest crude oil supplier in 2021, accounting for about 15 percent of China’s total imports and behind only Saudi Arabia.

Roughly 745,000 barrels of crude oil was delivered per day to Central and Eastern European nations, including Hungary, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Belarus and Bulgaria. Belarus got 95 percent of its oil imports from Russia. Hungary got 74 percent and Lithuania

61 percent.

Who can produce enough oil to make up for the loss of Russia’s?

This is a daunting task, especially since global demand for oil is expected to climb 3.2 million barrels a day in 2022 to a total of 100.6 million a day, according to the International Energy Agency’s most recent monthly report.

In addition, current exports could be disrupted if internal fighting were to break out, as it has before, in places such as Libya, Iraq or Nigeria. And some refineries can only be matched with certain grades of crude.

“This is suboptimal math for the White House,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “You have to string it together, and everything has to break your way.”


Only a few countries would have the ability to boost their production to replace the

Russian oil cut off by sanctions.

4.8 million

barrels per day

Up to

2.5 million

barrels per day

of additional

production

Only a few countries would have the ability to boost their production to replace the Russian oil cut off by sanctions.

4.8 million

barrels per day

Up to 2.5 million

barrels per day

of additional

production

Only a few countries would have the ability to boost their production to replace the Russian oil cut off by sanctions.

4.8 million barrels per day

Up to 2.5 million

barrels per day of

additional production

Only a few countries would have the ability to boost their production to replace the Russian oil cut off by sanctions.

4.8 million barrels per day

Up to 2.5 million

barrels per day of

additional production

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates

These two countries control about 2 million to 2.5 million barrels a day or more of spare capacity but are restraining output to keep prices high and to keep a cushion for even greater crises.

Most of that spare capacity rests in the hands of the Saudi kingdom, often known as the central bank of oil. The IEA already expects the UAE to raise output by 400,000 barrels a day. Iraq and Kuwait could increase output slightly.

All four countries are members of the 62-year-old Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which started meeting with non-OPEC countries about five years ago to more effectively curtail supply and boost prices. The combined group — which is known as OPEC+ and includes Russia — met recently and did not change production quotas. So far, the Saudi-Russia alliance appears to be working, despite President Biden’s entreaties that the kingdom put more oil onto world markets.

If negotiations over Iran’s effort to develop nuclear weapons succeed, and if trade sanctions are then lifted, Iran could boost its crude oil exports by as much as 1.3 million barrels a day.

But the negotiations have been arduous and have been complicated by the fact that Russia must sign off on any accord with Iran. Last week, Russia presented a new condition: a U.S. guarantee that the sanctions that have been imposed on Moscow for invading Ukraine will not be applied to Russian trade and investment with Iran. Even without this condition, Iran is supposed to open its facilities to verification before sanctions are lifted.

Though it is one of the five founding members of OPEC, Venezuela has suffered from poor management and tough U.S. sanctions. It does not have the ability to switch on oil output overnight like Saudi Arabia, but Biden administration officials have started reaching out to its leaders amid the crisis. Its wells need extensive maintenance, but with Western assistance and capital investment Venezuela could squeeze out as much as half a million to 600,000 barrels a day within a few months or a year.

But tensions remain between the United States and Venezuela, which has been run by populist dictators. The goals of the U.S. sanctions have not been met. Moreover, the Venezuelan oil fields pose some of the world’s gravest environmental concerns.

The United States might also be a source of new streams of oil; the Energy Information Administration forecasts a 760,000-barrel-a-day increase in U.S. production in 2022, bringing it to 12 million barrels a day. Some industry executives say the increase could be as much as 1 million barrels a day, mostly from shale oil. This increase would take weeks or months.

Where can Russia turn if more countries impose sanctions on its oil?

Russia could lose some market share if other countries step in. But prices are high even after traders insist on $25-to-$30 discounts on Russia’s oil.

Import and export numbers for crude oil and related products come from Trade Data Monitor and generally cover 12 months ending in October 2021. Data for countries’ future production potential comes from the IEA, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Rapidan Energy Group and RBC Capital Markets. Editing by Monica Ulmanu and Juliet Eilperin.

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