New England power grid operators are warning of the small but potentially disastrous possibility of rolling winter blackouts for New England under certain circumstances.Such a move would depend on the weather and an energy supply chain being described as “fragile.””We can keep the lights on in the wintertime with the current resource base, as long as something bad doesn’t happen,” Gordon Van Welie, CEO of ISO New England, said in 2016.For years now, Van Welie has issued the same warning. He says the regional power grid is vulnerable to a winter one-two punch of an extended cold snap combined with an interruption in supply or power generation. The result would be rolling blackouts in frigid temperatures. “It’s not the same thing as a complete collapse of the system, by the way. This will be controlled. It will be rationing of electricity, is what it comes down to, under winter conditions,” Van Welie said in 2018.Today, Van Welie says the danger is even more significant.”Because we have some 2,000 megawatts fewer firm resources on the system,” Van Welie said.Power plant retirements have decreased the region’s ability to generate electricity. Van Welie said that means his winter margin for error is even smaller, and when the grid enters into a cold weather crisis, it’s hard to escape. “Once you get into a situation where your energy supply chain can’t catch up with how fast you’re using the energy inputs, you end up in a situation where you can’t recover from one day to the next, you actually stay energy deficient for days on end. That’s a much scarier situation and, of course, we saw that play out in Texas,” Van Welie said.This scenario represents a remote possibility, but one Van Welie says must be prepared for. ISO New England has developed a 21-day warning system that it hopes will give governments and consumers advance notice of a rolling blackout threat, so conservation measures can be put in place.”We’ll be watching closely fuel supply levels in the region, watching the weather and so forth and running simulations every day to understand how much margin we have on the system,” Van Wiele said.
New England power grid operators are warning of the small but potentially disastrous possibility of rolling winter blackouts for New England under certain circumstances.
Such a move would depend on the weather and an energy supply chain being described as “fragile.”
“We can keep the lights on in the wintertime with the current resource base, as long as something bad doesn’t happen,” Gordon Van Welie, CEO of ISO New England, said in 2016.
For years now, Van Welie has issued the same warning. He says the regional power grid is vulnerable to a winter one-two punch of an extended cold snap combined with an interruption in supply or power generation. The result would be rolling blackouts in frigid temperatures.
“It’s not the same thing as a complete collapse of the system, by the way. This will be controlled. It will be rationing of electricity, is what it comes down to, under winter conditions,” Van Welie said in 2018.
Today, Van Welie says the danger is even more significant.
“Because we have some 2,000 megawatts fewer firm resources on the system,” Van Welie said.
Power plant retirements have decreased the region’s ability to generate electricity. Van Welie said that means his winter margin for error is even smaller, and when the grid enters into a cold weather crisis, it’s hard to escape.
“Once you get into a situation where your energy supply chain can’t catch up with how fast you’re using the energy inputs, you end up in a situation where you can’t recover from one day to the next, you actually stay energy deficient for days on end. That’s a much scarier situation and, of course, we saw that play out in Texas,” Van Welie said.
This scenario represents a remote possibility, but one Van Welie says must be prepared for. ISO New England has developed a 21-day warning system that it hopes will give governments and consumers advance notice of a rolling blackout threat, so conservation measures can be put in place.
“We’ll be watching closely fuel supply levels in the region, watching the weather and so forth and running simulations every day to understand how much margin we have on the system,” Van Wiele said.