- Prior was 0.10%
- Ends QE with final purchases to take place on Feb 10
- Prior pace of QE was A$4 billion/week
- While inflation has picked up, it is too early to conclude that it is
sustainably within the target band - Repeats that it “will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to
3 per cent target range” - There are uncertainties about how persistent the pick-up in inflation
will be as supply-side problems are resolved - Wages growth also remains modest and it is likely to be
some time yet before aggregate wages growth is at a rate consistent with inflation being sustainably at
target. - RBA says is “prepared to be patient as it monitors how the various factors affecting inflation in
Australia evolve” - RBA balance sheet is around $640 billion
- RBA will consider the issue of balance sheet reinvestment in May
In the December statement, the RBA tipped that it could end QE in ‘mid-February’. The program was widely expected to be ended today.
Previously, the RBA had said only a gradual pickup in underlying inflation was expected. The very same month, core prices rose 1.0% m/m, data revealed last week. Since then, market pricing for hikes has picked up and there was a 14% chance of a hike priced in next month, rising sharply from there.
This statement should be read as a push-back against those expectations and so it’s no surprise that AUD/USD has taken a quick trip to 0.7040 from 0.7070 beforehand.
More:
- faster-than-expected progress has been made towards the
RBA’s goals and further progress is likely - central forecast is for GDP growth of around 4¼ per cent over 2022 and
2 per cent over 2023 - high numbers of job vacancies suggest further gains in employment over the months ahead
- central forecast is for the unemployment rate to fall to below 4 per cent later
in the year and to be around 3¾ per cent at the end of 2023. - Wages growth has picked up but, at the aggregate level, has only returned to the relatively low rates
prevailing before the pandemic - Gradual pickup in wages is expected
- The central forecast is for underlying inflation
to increase further in coming quarters to around 3¼ per cent, before declining to around
2¾ per cent over 2023 as the supply-side problems are resolved and consumption patterns
normalise
The RBA’s previous forecast on inflation was not to hit underlying inflation of 2.5% until 2023. Now it’s saying there will be a short-term rise that will sort itself out and then the pace will fall to 2.75% over 2023.