Omicron has rapidly become the predominant COVID-19 variant of concern, driving a spike of case rates in the United States at the same time that extended families gather for the holiday season. For families with older and immunocompromised individuals, worries about COVID-19 are understandable. But with its high rate of vaccination, the San Francisco Bay Area appears to be well-equipped to handle the upcoming wave. And while experts want the public to be cautious, they also do not want mass panic and anxiety to overwhelm and overrule the current COVID-19 response.
“Biggest piece of advice: Don’t panic,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious diseases expert at UCSF. “This is not March 2020. The vaccines are a revolution in helping us stay safe and protecting our hospital capacity.”
Susan Philip, San Francisco’s health officer, emphasized the importance of getting the booster in an interview with SFGATE.
“We’re starting from a majority population that has had their first doses, and now we’re saying this additional booster dose is what’s needed to really, really make sure that people have the maximum protection for themselves and to make sure our city is as protected as possible,” she said.
We asked three experts — two infectious disease experts and a leading San Francisco health official — for their input on how the Bay Area has been affected by omicron so far, as well as their thoughts on how to navigate common scenarios as the variant continues to proliferate.
Find COVID-19 case, hospitalization and death rates for San Francisco, Alameda County and Contra Costa County on their respective public health dashboards.
This story will be updated.
Are COVID cases going up in the San Francisco Bay Area?
Philip said that cases have risen within the past four to five days in the city.
“They have gone from about 10 to 21 [people infected for every 100,000 people] in the past four to five days. So this is a similar pattern. We are going to be seeing a similar trajectory show up … that we are seeing in New York City.” (In New York, after hovering around the 100 mark in November, just over 225 people were infected for every 100,000 people on Dec. 7. As of Dec. 18, the most recent day for which the city has data, 795 per 100,000 were infected, according to New York’s dashboard.)
Philip said she anticipates seeing people who have been vaccinated but not boosted getting breakthrough infections at a higher rate than their boosted counterparts.
Are COVID hospitalizations going up in the Bay Area?
Philip said that hospitalizations have not risen yet in San Francisco, but given trends in New York and elsewhere globally, she anticipates an uptick in hospitalizations here as well.
“We expect that we will see increases in hospitalizations,” she said, “and what we’re trying to do is give people information so that we can mitigate the height of that surge, the height of those hospitalization peaks. Because again, we want to keep people out of the hospital so that they themselves have better health and are not having terrible health consequences.”
Her message hearkens back to an oft-repeated message from earlier in the pandemic: Flatten the curve.
A medical professional prepares to administer a pediatric Pfizer COVID-19 vaccination during a vaccination clinic at Emmanuel Baptist Church on Nov. 3, 2021, in San Jose, Calif.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Are vaccinated people in the Bay Area reporting serious illness with omicron?
Definitive data isn’t available yet to indicate whether omicron infections look different from those caused by other variants.
Chin-Hong told SFGATE in an email that preliminary data has found that while the “vast majority … reporting serious illness are unvaccinated,” there have been some hospitalizations among older individuals (those over 75, he said) and immunocompromised individuals. However, those individuals for the most part had not had booster shoots.
UCSF epidemiologist Dr. George Rutherford said data from outside the region indicated omicron causes milder disease in vaccinated people.
He referred to recent data from the U.K. Health Security Agency that has identified more than 143,000 possible omicron cases. Of those cases, there have been 129 hospitalizations and 14 deaths. (As of Dec. 17, more than half of the United Kingdom’s over-18 population has received the booster.)
“There are undoubtedly vaccinated people getting infected with omicron and a few boosted people getting infected, but people with omicron appear to be hospitalized at a relatively lower rate” compared with other variants, Rutherford said.
What makes this potential Bay Area COVID surge different from past waves?
Our experts all pointed to different factors distinguishing this current surge from earlier ones.
Chin-Hong said that “the tremendous infectivity” of omicron sets it apart, with at least double the spread of the delta variant.
“With previous surges, vaccines would have been more powerful as a singular measure [preventing transmission], but we need some additional add-ons now to be the safest, like masks [and testing],” he said.
Rutherford said the early evidence suggests the new wave is “associated with lower levels of serious disease,” in part because so many people have been vaccinated here, he said.
How does the COVID-19 surge in the Bay Area compare to other parts of California and the country?
Philip said that for now, San Francisco and the Bay Area at large have not seen an increase in hospitalizations. But other areas of the state, especially in Los Angeles County, hospitalizations have risen.
“We’re seeing statewide that hospitalizations have already increased 12% overall compared to a couple of weeks ago, and in Southern California, LA County, they’ve increased 31%,” Philip said.
But Chin-Hong is optimistic that the Bay Area is prepared to handle this upcoming wave.
“Our hospitals will suffer with sick healthcare workers isolating at home and an influx of patients,” he said. But “if anyone is going to stand up to omicron, the Bay Area will. We have among the highest vaccination rates in the country and we have been as COVID street smart as any.”
Masked customers and one unmasked exit Walgreens on Irving Street in the Outer Sunset on Monday afternoon, Aug. 2, 2021.
Kevin Kelleher/Special to SFGATE
Where can I get tested?
You can go directly to your health care provider such as Kaiser Permanente or Sutter Health for testing. Pharmacies such as Walgreens and CVS also provide testing.
You should also consult resources from your county that may offer unique testing opportunities at community and pop-up clinics.
— Find testing information for Alameda County.
— Find testing information for Contra Costa County.
— Find testing information for Marin County.
— Find testing information for Napa County.
— Find testing information for San Francisco.
— Find testing information for San Mateo County.
— Find testing information for Santa Clara County.
— Find testing information for Sonoma County.
— Find testing information for Solano County.
Where can I buy at-home COVID tests?
Over-the-counter antigen tests can be purchased online or at most pharmacies and give you results in 15 minutes. They’re not as reliable as PCR tests, but they’re likely to catch COVID when people are at their most contagious.
These tests have been selling out quickly. Check with your local pharmacy to find out when they are going to receive a new shipment.
Should I be worried about passing COVID to my older relatives at a holiday gathering if everyone is vaccinated and boosted?
Experts say, for the most part, not really.
“Not particularly, but everyone needs to be fully vaccinated and boosted,” said Rutherford, emphasizing that this means everyone who is eligible should have completed a vaccine series and gotten a booster shot. “The very little kids who can’t get vaccinated are less likely to be transmitters.”
Philip, though, noted that it’s not a one-size-fits-all suggestion.
“People may choose to take slightly different approaches and use different layers of additional protection based on their own circumstances,” she said. People who are extremely worried can plan for outdoor gatherings, indoor masking and testing before gathering.
But it’s important to remember that this year’s holiday is vastly different from last year’s.
“We’re not telling people don’t gather. We know how important it is for mental health and overall well-being for people to see the people that they love and care about. We just need to be mindful that omicron is here,” Philip said.
Is it safe to dine indoors at restaurants or attend indoor events in the Bay Area if I’m fully vaccinated and boosted?
Experts are a bit torn. “Yes,” said Rutherford. “I’m planning on going to the Warriors game on Jan. 3. I’m taking some of my kids with me. I think the level of vaccination is really high in the Bay Area. I think they aggressively screen people who’ve been unvaccinated. I think it’s about as good as it’s going to get.”
But Chin-Hong is a bit more wary.
“Right now there may still be a window before cases surge further and before restaurant workers stay home and isolate if they’re infected,” Chin-Hong said. “But that window may be closing very quickly. It all depends on your risk-benefit calculus.”
For those who are older than 65 or immunocompromised, or live with an individual who is — especially if they are unboosted — Chin-Hong says it’s worth considering forgoing indoor dining for a short period of time.