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(Kitco News) – Gold prices are higher in midday U.S. trading Monday, but well down from their overnight 1.5-year high of $2,007.50. Silver overnight an eight-month high of $26.37 but are now trading lower on the day. More safe-haven demand is featured in gold early this week amid the war raging in Europe. April gold futures were last up $19.90 at $1,986.40 and May Comex silver was last down $0.174 at $25.62 an ounce.
Veteran market watchers know it’s usually a fool’s errand to predict specific market price tops. However, price action in certain markets today is beginning to suggest to this market watcher of nearly 40 years that we may be close to such in several raw commodity markets. “Dr. Copper” scored a record high early on today and then reversed course to produce massive losses and score a bearish “key reversal” down. Crude oil and gold are both way down from their spike overnight highs. This suggests exhaustion in these important markets. These are the strongest early clues to date that raw commodity market bulls are running out of gas—at least on a near-term basis.
The all-time high in Comex gold futures was set in August of 2020, at $2,063.00. Palladium futures also hit record highs overnight. Crypto currencies are under selling pressure Monday, as traders and investors apparently consider them higher-risk assets.
Global stocks markets were lower overnight and the U.S. stock indexes are solidly lower at midday. Geopolitical tensions remain very high as the Russian invasion of Ukraine is set to enter its second week with no off-ramp seen to the conflict that has also created a humanitarian crisis. The U.S. and Europe are considering banning Russian oil imports, which ratchets up further the anxiety in the marketplace, as well as further stokes inflation that has already become problematic. Said one analyst: “This toxic cocktail poses a huge problem for central banks.”
Nymex crude oil prices are higher, hit a 14-year high of $130.50 overnight and are now trading around $117.50 at midday. The all-time high in nearby Nymex crude oil prices was scored in July of 2008, at $147.27 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher again today and hit a 21-month high. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 1.73%. Treasury yields have declined recently on flight-to-quality buying of U.S. debt.
Technically, April gold futures prices hit a 1.5-year high of $2,007.50 overnight. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage, but appear tired. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,007.50. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,950.00. First resistance is seen at $2,000.00 and then at $2,007.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,964.20 and then at $1,950.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.5
May silver futures prices hit an eight-month high early on today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $27.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $24.00. First resistance is seen at $26.00 and then at the overnight high of $26.37. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $25.465 and then at $25.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0.
May N.Y. copper closed down 2,230 points at 471.50 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after scoring a record high of 503.95 cents overnight. Prices today also scored a bearish and huge “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart, which is one clue that a market top is in place. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, nearly three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 503.95 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 440.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 480.00 cents and then at 485.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 466.80 cents and then at 460.00 cents. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0.
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